Op-Ed: Energy Sovereignty and the Next Chapter of Viet Nam’s Transformation

Viet Nam is entering a new chapter of political and institutional transformation. Following the Communist Party Congress in January, the National Assembly elections in March, and the first session of the new Assembly in April, a new generation of leaders has assumed office.  And while administrative structures continue to evolve, one priority remains unchanged: Viet Nam’s strategic commitment to sustaining high-quality growth while advancing its net-zero emissions and climate resilience goals. These priorities are firmly embedded in high-level policies and integrated into socio-economic planning and national targeted programmes.

Energy sovereignty under immediate pressure

Yet even as this transition unfolds, the new leadership is immediately confronted with an early test of energy sovereignty. When international oil prices surged past 100 USD per barrel earlier this year, Vietnamese consumers faced sharp increases in fuel costs: petrol reached nearly 35,000 VND (approximately 1.3 USD) per litre in March 2026, while diesel climbed to over 42,000 VND in early April - spikes of 65% and 132% compared to February. These sudden increases, driven by geopolitical instability, exposed the structural vulnerability of Viet Nam’s reliance on imported fossil fuels and underscored the urgency of accelerating the energy transition.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade’s May 2026 report (Report #312/BC-BCT, 13 May 2026) offers a more profound warning. Viet Nam became a net energy importer in 2015, with import dependence rising from 8.5% of total primary energy consumption to nearly 44% in 2025 (53.6 million TOE). Projections indicate that dependence will remain significant at around 27% by 2045 (63.8 million TOE). At the same time, the electricity system faces structural constraints. Even if all renewable energy projects under the Power Development Plan VIII are delivered on time, Viet Nam could still face a power deficit of up to 14%-16% of total commercial electricity output by 2030. If grid bottlenecks limit renewable integration, shortages could rise to as much as 20%, and in more constrained scenarios, up to 28%.

From fossil fuel dependence to a just energy transition

These are not abstract technical figures. They are warnings about the foundations of future growth. Energy insecurity threatens industrial competitiveness, supply chain stability, and macroeconomic resilience. Heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels also exposes Viet Nam to external shocks beyond its control. This is why energy security is no longer just a sectoral issue - it is now a core element of national economic sovereignty.

The direction forward is increasingly clear: strengthening energy sovereignty requires a decisive shift away from fossil fuel dependence and toward a more resilient, diversified, and domestically anchored energy system.

Offshore wind, solar energy, energy efficiency, and modernized grids are no longer optional components of development planning. They are strategic infrastructure for national resilience. Strengthened regional interconnection and power trade can further enhance system flexibility and reduce exposure to global volatility.

These energy vulnerabilities are inseparable from the accelerating global climate crisis. Scientific evidence is unequivocal: continued reliance on fossil fuels is the principal driver of global warming and increasingly severe extreme weather events. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres was crystal clear about the source of the problem and the available solution in his special address at London Climate Action Week. He said, “Our world is facing a Tale of two Crises: A climate crisis pushing us deeper toward higher temperatures and closer to catastrophic tipping points; And an energy crisis exposing the folly of a world hooked on hydrocarbons. On the surface, these crises may seem separate. But they share the same destructive origin: Fossil fuels. And they demand the same answer: A fast, fair transition to clean energy and a surge in adaptation, resilience and climate justice for those already facing climate harm.”

For Viet Nam - one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries - these global trends translate into very real domestic impacts: stronger and more destructive typhoons along the central coast, rising sea levels threatening the Mekong Delta and its 17 million residents, prolonged droughts affecting agricultural production, and increasing heat stress reducing labor productivity across agriculture, industry, and services.

The same fossil fuel dependence that drives today’s price volatility is also intensifying tomorrow’s climate risks. Breaking this dual dependency - on volatile global energy markets and on a destabilizing carbon pathway - is not a trade-off between growth and sustainability. It is the only credible pathway to both resilience and prosperity.

In this context, the United Nations Secretary-General’s global call to action - ending new fossil fuel expansion, tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, and rapidly reducing methane emissions -is particularly relevant for Viet Nam’s current development trajectory. These priorities are fully consistent with Viet Nam’s national ambitions for energy security, economic stability, and sustainable growth.

The UN system in Viet Nam is working in close partnership with the Government and national stakeholders to translate these global goals into practical action. This includes mobilizing financing for renewable energy infrastructure, strengthening technical capacity for offshore wind and solar deployment, supporting just transition pathways for workers and communities, and enhancing climate resilience for those most exposed to climate impacts. It also includes support for implementing Viet Nam’s National Climate Change Strategy and the National Action Plan on Methane Reduction, both central to the pathway toward net-zero emissions by 2050.

The events of early 2026 - rising fuel prices, inflationary pressures, and concerns over energy system reliability - underscore the urgency of this transition. At the same time, they highlight a critical opportunity. Viet Nam should not wait for future shocks to act. The policy frameworks are already in place, renewable energy resources are abundant, and international partnerships are strong. What is needed now is acceleration in scale and pace of implementation.

Encouragingly, progress is already underway. On 1 June 2026, for example, Viet Nam rolled out E10 biofuel nationwide, replacing E5 RON92 and reducing fossil fuel content in petrol blends by approximately 10%. At present, the use of B5 and B10 biodiesel is being encouraged. This further reflects efforts to diversify energy sources and reduce import dependence. While the environmental sustainability of biofuels must continue to be carefully assessed across their full lifecycle, this step reflects an important policy signal: leveraging current challenges to accelerate structural change.

A just transition for a resilient future

A choice between development and climate action is a false dichotomy. A just energy transition ensures that growth, resilience, and sustainability advance together, leaving no one behind.

Viet Nam’s experience captures a defining challenge of our time: how to power development without deepening vulnerability, and how to build prosperity while safeguarding the planet. The choices made today will shape not only national development trajectories but also the credibility of global climate commitments.

With strong policy foundations, abundant renewable potential, and sustained international partnership, Viet Nam is well positioned to turn today’s challenges into long-term opportunity. The United Nations stands ready to continue working with the Government and people of Viet Nam to advance a just transition toward net-zero emissions by 2050 - as a pathway to resilience, sovereignty, and shared prosperity./.

Published on Vietnam Economic News